Work package 2

Transformative structural and technological change and climate change mitigation

NAVIGATE aims to advance the representation of structural change in the economy and its interrelationship with mitigation pathways by improved multi-sector economic modelling and structural change scenarios. The project resolves and disentangles the economic, policy and technical factors that shape technological innovation, including the impact of technology granularity or size on learning rates. The project also relates the integrated assessment modelling of energy transformation pathways to socio-technical transition approaches. General insights are translated into improved modelling of decarbonisation pathways for the industry sector from a “structural change perspective” taking into account electrification, carbon capture and storage, and carbon capture and utilization options. A structural change perspective is also highly relevant for analysing transformative land-use change, including deep mitigation measures in the agricultural sector as well as nature-based terrestrial carbon dioxide removal options. The combined impact of these advances on the structure of mitigation pathways is analysed in a multi-model study.