Expert workshop “Modeling and assessment of impacts, adaptive capacity, and interactions with SDGs in IAMs”

20-22 September 2021

Background of the workshop

The NAVIGATE project includes a series of activities to sustain an exchange between NAVIGATE and key groups of academic experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders. The aim is to gather feedback on the design of the project’s research activities, the scope of analysis, the choice of the relevant IAM outputs and policy-relevant scenarios, and the needs for documentation and communication. This exchange is primarily supported by a series of three workshops. The first NAVIGATE stakeholder workshop was organized in May 2020 and focused on the robustness and legitimacy of models for climate policy assessment, bringing together 99 participants from 49 organizations in a 2-day virtual event.

To reflect on remaining challenges and guide future research, the NAVIGATE expert workshop will address three guiding questions:

  • How to improve the representation of climate impacts and adaptation dynamics in IAMs?
  • How to assess the results of joint climate impact-mitigation modeling studies?
  • What are best practice policies that minimize trade-offs and maximize co-benefits between climate mitigation and sustainable development goals and how can these be represented in IAM scenarios?

The workshop will bring together international experts and NAVIGATE/ENGAGE researchers for in-depth discussions around these questions. Each of the guiding questions will be the theme of one half-day virtual session. The two first sessions on the first two questions will combine presentations and plenary discussions to assess recent advances and further challenges for joint climate impact-mitigation modeling and assessment. The third session, organized together with the ENGAGE project, will evaluate the representation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related policies in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) identify examples best practice policies from around the world and discuss whether and how to include these policy representations in IAM scenarios.

 

Programme

Session 1: Representing climate impacts at a sectoral and regional level in IAMs

Monday September 20, 16:00-19:00 CET

16:00 – 16:10. Opening of the workshop with introductory presentations

  • Massimo Tavoni (European Institute on Economics and the Environment)
  • Marc Jaxa-Rozen (University of Geneva)

16:10 – 17:15. Expert presentations and Q&A on advances and remaining challenges in climate impact estimation and modeling. Moderator: Johannes Emmerling.

  • Marshall Burke (Stanford University): Empirical evidence on the aggregate impacts of warming
  • James Rising (University of Delaware): Challenges and pathways to constructing sectoral empirical damage functions
  • Francis Moore (University of California, Davis): Importance of Damage Persistence for Climate Change Costs: New Evidence from Lower-Frequency Temperature Variability
  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar Martinez (European Commission – Joint Research Centre): Climate risk and adaptation assessment: bottom-up, biophysical integrated modelling experience and lessons from the PESETA suite of projects

17:15 – 17:30. Coffee break

17:30 – 18:20. Short talks from NAVIGATE teams. Moderator: Marc Jaxa-Rozen.

  • Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst (PBL): Damage curves and uncertainty assessment
  • Aurélie Méjean (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement): Modeling climate impacts on labor productivity
  • Johannes Emmerling (RFF-CMCC): Modeling within-country inequality and impacts
  • Nicole van Maanen (Climate Analytics): Modeling adaptation dynamics

17:55 – 18:10. Coffee break

18:20 – 19:00. Moderated plenary discussion around the following guiding questions. Moderator: Johannes Emmerling.

  • What can we learn from empirical research on damage functions? To what extent are they useful for modeling?
  • Integrating economic impacts in IAMs: how to comprehensively cover impact channels and categories, and capture their impact on growth?
  • What are practical entry points for representing adaptation dynamics in IAMs?

Session 2: Designing assessment frameworks for joint impact-mitigation studies
Tuesday September 21, 16:00-19:00 CET

16:00 – 16:05. Massimo Tavoni (RFF-CMCC): Welcome and housekeeping remarks

16:05 – 16:20. Session 1 continued: Expert presentation and Q&A on advances and remaining challenges in climate impact estimation and modeling. Moderator: Massimo Tavoni.

  • Leonie Wenz (PIK): Towards a better understanding of global temperature impacts on economic performance: subnational effects & day-to-day variability

16:20 – 16:30. Elmar Kriegler (PIK): Introduction to the second session of the workshop

16:30 – 17:25. Expert presentations and Q&A on joint impact-mitigation assessment. Moderator: Elmar Kriegler.

  • Julie Rozenberg (The World Bank): Joint impact‐mitigation tools for climate and development studies
  • Jarmo Kikstra (IIASA): The need for mitigation and adaptation: evidence from the social cost of carbon under partial growth effects
  • Francis Dennig (Yale-NUS College and The World Bank): In praise of differential carbon prices

17:25 – 17:40. Coffee break

17:40 – 18:20. Short talks from NAVIGATE teams. Moderator: Marc Jaxa-Rozen.

  • Franziska Piontek (PIK): A conceptual framework for cost-benefit decomposition
  • Mathijs Harmsen (PBL): Assessment of climate impact scenarios in the IMAGE framework
  • Laurent Drouet (RFF-CMCC): Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

18:20 – 19:00. Moderated plenary discussion around the following guiding questions. Moderator: Elmar Kriegler.

  • How can climate impacts be integrated in mitigation pathway analysis to provide a comprehensive multi-dimensional picture on the costs and benefits of mitigation?
  • Can cost-effective analysis, cost-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and analyses of the social costs of carbon be combined to a coherent economic assessment of climate action pathways?
  • What is the role of reference scenarios and baselines in joint impact-mitigation studies, and are revisions needed to the SSP-RCP framework?
  • How should assessment frameworks represent the distributional aspects of climate impacts and mitigation?

Session 3: Bringing best practice policies of climate mitigation and SDGs to IAM scenarios
Wednesday September 22, 13:30-17:00 CET

13:30 – 13:35 Introduction to the third day of the workshop

13:35 – 14:30 SDGs and related policies in IAMs

  • Overview of tradeoffs and synergies between climate policy and SDGs in IAMs (Volker Krey/Jarmo Kikstra, IIASA)
  • SDG policies in the IMAGE model (Detlef van Vuuren, PBL)
  • Modeling SDG interventions (Bjoern Soergel, PIK)

14:30 – 14:40 Coffee Break

14:40 – 15:30 Expert overviews of policies that minimize trade-offs and maximize co-benefits between climate mitigation and SDGs (10 minutes each)Energy access (Francis X Johnson and Rob Bailis, SEI)

  • Health (Pauline Scheelbeek, LSHTM)
  • Biodiversity (Simon Buckle, OECD)
  • Food (Herman Lotze-Campen, PIK)
  • Water (Josh Weinberg, SIWI)

15:30 – 15:40 Coffee Break

15:40 – 16:30: Breakout groups discussing policies and whether/how to represent these in IAMs and scenarios

Breakouts in two groups:

  • Biodiversity/Food/Water (chair: Volker Krey)
  • Health/Energy (chair: Bas van Ruijven)

16:30 – 16:50: Plenary reporting and final discussion

16:50 – 17:00 Wrap-up of the workshop